Finals Week One
Brisbane Broncos 4 l. St.George-Illawarra Dragons 20

2006 NRL Telstra Premiership Index [Table] [Draw] [Player Stats] [Club Headlines]

Location: Aus_NZ > National > First Grade Competition: NRL Telstra Premiership

Dragons produce their best for the Finals
Sun September 10, 2006
It's rare for St George Illawarra to save their best performance for a big match semi-final but last night they did with an impressive 20-4 victory against Brisbane in front of over 50,000 fans at Suncorp Stadium.

The Dragons came out breathing with Clint Greenshields finishing off an excellent movement to score seven minutes into the match to open up an early 4-0 lead.

Aaron Gorrell crossed over from dummy half in the 24th minute to push the Dragons clear at 10-0.

Danny Wicks had a try disallowed moments later after video replays ruled that Ben Creagh interfered with Broncos fullback Justin Hodges and the tide turned when Darius Boyd scored moments later for the Dragons to lead 10-4, which remained that way until half-time.

Luke Bailey scored a determined try five minutes into the second half and Matt Cooper crossed in the 54th minute for the Dragons to lead 20-4.

It wasn't all good news for St George Illawarra with outstanding centre Mark Gasnier in serious doubt for next week's clash against Manly or Melbourne depending on today's result. Gasnier was taken off the field in the second half after falling to the ground with a hip problem, which is expected to keep him out for 1-2 weeks.

Dragons coach Nathan Brown after the match said, "Tonight was great, it is the best win of the year with these players. Defensively we were great, everyone scrambled for each other and the effort was outstanding."

One of the Dragons excellent performers was captain Trent Barrett who delivered when it mattered on the semi-final stage and Barrett following the victory said, "We came here knowing we had to win, knowing that we had to play well to beat them and we did. Our forwards were great, they lead the way and the effort from everybody was great.

"Games like these are the reason we all play and the challenge is to reproduce that form nest week."

The Dragons defence was at their most impressive last night and Bailey said, "It was awesome the goal-line defence, that's what wins games. That was semi-final footy at its best."

It was Brisbane's 7th successive Finals loss and for the last three years they have finished in 3rd position and lose all three times. The last victory Brisbane at in Finals Footy was in the opening week of the 2002 Finals.

Due to the Bulldogs victory last night, the Broncos get another chance next week where they'll take on Newcastle or Parramatta depending on today's result.









Preview: Broncos v Dragons
Wed September 6, 2006
The Broncos take on the Dragons at Suncorp in the 2nd match of the weekend in what promises to be an absolute cracking game. Adding to this match is the potential twist that should the Dragons lose, they are an even money chance of being eliminated from the Finals race altogether.

There's an eerie feeling of familiarity to 2004 for the Dragons, when a loss to 4th place Penrith saw the Dragons drop out of the finals race. In 2004, the wobbly 3rd placed Broncos were comprehensively beaten by the Storm and the 2nd placed Bulldogs were upset by the plucky Cowboys. The one-point loss to Penrith left the Dragons as the 3rd ranked loser, meaning elimination for the joint-venture in a very cruel way. It was a demonstration that the second-chance truly only applies to teams 1 and 2, and you roll the dice by not winning in Week 1 if you are placed 3 to 6.

In 2006, the Dragons are one place worse off, finishing in 6th after looking like potential Minor Premiers before sliding down the ladder thanks to a losing streak starting in Round 19 vs. the Bulldogs at Kogarah. The Dragons went on to lose 5 in a row before pummelling the defending Premiers, Wests Tigers, 46-16 on a Sunday afternoon at Kogarah.

The Dragons bounced back to add two more to the winning streak, meaning three wins in a row coming in to the 2006 NRL Finals. Whilst any win is a good win, the Dragons have been a little shaky and their three wins included the lowly Roosters and the horrendously out of form Cronulla Sharks ? neither of which was convincing.

The Broncos looked dead and buried a month ago. The "slump that wasn't a slump" was in full swing and the late season collapse that has stymied the Broncos previous few campaigns looked likely to repeat itself. Whilst some signs of resurgence were seen in the 12-18 loss to the high-flying Storm at Suncorp, no-one was prepared to say the Broncos were back.

However, no-one was prepared for what happened next.

The Broncos travelled down to Telstra Stadium to take on the then-favourites, the Bulldogs. This Friday night fixture was seen as the Broncos main chance to regain some semblance of form and the Bulldogs were to be the ultimate test. After 80 minutes, the Broncos had scored 30 unanswered points to sound the loudest warning possible that the 2006 Telstra Premiership was not a two-horse race. The 30-0 demolition of the Bulldogs was brutal ? so brutal that the Bulldogs appear to have not recovered thanks to a season-ending injury to strike centre Willie Tonga and a long-term injury to Dally M Prop of the Year, Roy Asotasi.

The Broncos went on to record a second successive shutout, this time the Eels suffered for a 23-0 loss to the Broncos ? their 9-game winning streak snuffed out in clinical fashion. A convincing win over the Warriors at Suncorp rounded out the regular season for the Broncos ? and the "slump that wasn't a slump" was no longer.

Last time the Broncos and the Dragons met was Round 15 at Suncorp Stadium. It was a big Friday night clash and the game proved to be a thriller despite neither side controlling the ball particularly well, nor capitalising on their chances. The Broncos led the Dragons 16-12 after 78 minutes, yet they never looked safe. The Dragons had broken the Broncos defence numerous times on the night, but were never able to put points on the board in a frustrating performance. Dragons' halfback Mathew Head sent the ball cross-field and skyward to Brett Morris' wing and he came down with the ball and a try to have the game locked up at 16-all. Aaron Gorrell was asked to step up to take the match winner and he coolly slotted the sideline conversion to send the Dragons home relieved winners.

These two sides also clashed in Round 4 down at WIN Stadium ? St George-Illawarra's own "fortress". A fairly strong Broncos side was silenced by an injury-riddled Dragons side 26-12 on the Sunday afternoon. The Dragons were without Mathew Head, Jason Ryles, Shaun Timmins, Luke Bailey and Wes Naiqama that day, and Mark Gasnier was paired in the halves with Trent Barrett. It was a fantastic performance from the depleted Dragons running in 4 tries to 2, whilst the Broncos were left wondering what was happening to their season with 2 wins and 2 losses, and no Top 8 spot.

Come Saturday night, these two past matches will mean very little. The Dragons may take some confidence up to Suncorp knowing they have beaten the Broncos twice in 2006, but this should be cold comfort for the team and coach Nathan Brown when compared to the form of the Broncos juggernaut in the last month.

Conversely, the Broncos have every right to be confident despite the two losses this year. The Broncos have the wood on the Dragons in finals football ? having won all 4 post-season matches against the Dragons or their joint-venture entities. On top of this, the Broncos have kept pace with the minor premiers, smashed the then-favourites, snapped the Eels hot-streak and comprehensively beaten a Warriors team who finished with the 3rd best points differential.

In front of nearly 50,000 screaming fans, this game is going to be a torrid affair with plenty of forward confrontation. The Broncos and Dragons (along with the Bulldogs) have the biggest and fiercest forward packs in the game. Shane Webcke and Petero Civoniceva will take on Luke Bailey and Jason Ryles ? all four having represented their state and country. Some of the body clashes are likely to shake the foundations of Suncorp; such will be the enormity of the front-row clash.

Out in the back though, there's plenty to sit back and enjoy. The Broncos will have an in-form Justin Hodges, speedster Brent Tate, the gifted Karmichael Hunt and the mercurial Darren Lockyer threatening the Dragons line almost constantly. On the other side, the Dragons have the most dangerous centre in the game in Mark Gasnier, his partner (and dangerous in his own right) Matt Cooper, the England-bound Trent Barrett and the versatile and talented Ben Hornby.

On paper, the Dragons look the better side. The Broncos backline, whilst talented, is not nearly as star-studded. However, Broncos Coach Wayne Bennett has ensured that what his backline may lack in attacking prowess, they make up for in defensive capability. Tackling-machine David Stagg has a massive job to do in the centres ? a job he has done admirably to date. If there is anywhere the Dragons have a few frailties, it is in their outside back defence. Whilst Matt Cooper is generally regarded as the game's best defensive centre, Mark Gasnier is a bit suspect. Brett Morris has been exposed on the wing from time-to-time and Wes Naiqama is still finding his feet a little after coming back from a long injury lay-off.

So, how will each side win the game?

The Broncos will win in the same way they have won in recent weeks ? bashing through the forwards and miserly defence. The game plan will be to lay a platform by getting a roll on through their big forward pack, and using dummy-half Shaun Berrigan to punch small holes in the Dragons line when they are on the back foot. From there, expect the Broncos to send the ball wide through Lockyer with plenty of decoys and a mixture of second-man and short balls to runners. In defence, the Broncos will come up in numbers, looking to shut down the offloads of the Dragons. The key will be to keep tight in the middle when the likes of Clint Greenshields and Mark Gasnier will probe for gaps between tired forwards on the back of any major territorial gains on the fringes.

The Dragons will win through short-side rushes using Mark Gasnier and Matt Cooper to get the Broncos on the back foot, and then they will look to expose lazy Broncos defenders in the middle of the park with their quicker men and offloads by the likes of Bailey and Ryles when met by only one or two Broncos defenders. The Dragons will need to match the Broncos up the middle in defence; otherwise they'll be on the back-foot and in no position to win. If they do this and hold onto the ball, the Dragons have the firepower to win the match.

In reality, the Dragons have to win this match. They will be only too aware that the Bulldogs have a poor record in winning home finals, and an even poorer record against Canberra at Telstra Stadium. Worse still, the Bulldogs are suffering major injury disruptions and would be a 50/50 chance at best of beating the Raiders. The Bulldogs also have the luxury of a guaranteed second chance because they finished second. If the Dragons and the Bulldogs both lose, the Dragons' season is over.

The Broncos will be too strong for the Dragons at home in a tight match with a bit of a score blow-out in the end. The Dragons play like 13 individuals when they are under the pump, whilst the Broncos keep working for each other despite requiring Darren Lockyer to pull all the strings. I don't think the Dragons have worked out how to play as a team just yet, and this will be their downfall when the pressure is applied in the last quarter of the game. The Dragons only hope is to shut Lockyer down and minimise the damage Justin Hodges inflicts from the back.

Matthew O'Neill Comment:
Brisbane have found form in the last three weeks and the criticisms leveled at Wayne Bennett about his denials of the Broncos being in a slump came too early as Bennett's faith has prevailed. The Dragons have defeated the Broncos twice this year and that is going to go in their favour plus for them that this match is just about complete elimination for them with Canberra at this stage favourites to topple the Bulldogs. The Dragons have been hot and cold during the year and we don't know what Dragons side will turn up on Saturday night. Brisbane have been enjoying great support at Suncorp Stadium and are in a real purple patch of form. I just think the Broncos will be too consistent, they'll be ready for the battle and ultimately Darren Lockyer will be the difference. The Dragons for once in their lives will be hoping for the Bulldogs and Storm to record victories so they can play the winner of the Knights/Sea Eagles next week.

James Stewart Comment:
Brisbane have found the missing X-Factor that has been missing after the Origin in recent seasons. This year looked to be heading down the same path until something clicked in their defence. Their last month of football has been the epitomy of semi-final football - a game built entirely on defence. Hold out your opponent and eventually the pressure will crack on them and you'll post points. The Broncos only have to continue this type of football and they'll win. The Dragons will struggle to make line breaks against the solid Brisbane defence and will have to rely on points from kicks. This is where Brisbane have the potential to crack. But the form of Hodges, Hunt and Boyd at the back should see them defuse most attempts on their line. This year will prove once again that the Dragons are just missing that something special to go all the way. This year is shaping up as Brisbane's finest premiership assault since 2000.

Saturday September 9, 2006
Brisbane Broncos vs St.George-Illawarra Dragons at Suncorp Metway Stadium, Castlemaine Street, Milton, Brisbane (QLD)

Brisbane Broncos
Justin Hodges, Darius Boyd, Brent Tate, David Stagg, Karmichael Hunt, Darren Lockyer (C), Shane Perry, Shane Webcke, Shaun Berrigan, Petero Civoniceva, Sam Thaiday, Brad Thorn, Tonie Carroll. Subs: Corey Parker, Dane Carlaw, Ben Hannant, Casey McGuire

St.George-Illawarra Dragons
Clint Greenshields, Wes Naiqama, Mark Gasnier, Matt Cooper, Brett Morris, Trent Barrett (C), Ben Hornby, Luke Bailey, Aaron Gorrell, Jason Ryles, Matt Bickerstaff, Ashton Sims, Ben Creagh. Subs: Danny Wicks, Justin Poore, Sam Isemonger, Shaun Timmins, Michael Henderson

Date: Sat September 9 2006, 6:30PM AEST GMT+10 [Sat September 9 2006, 8:30AM GMT]
Referee: Paul Simpkins
TV Details: Live Channel Nine 6:30pm

Predictions:
James Stewart: Broncos by 20
Chris Riediger: Broncos by 13
Matthew O'Neill: Broncos by 4

OVERALL:
Total Games: 16
Brisbane Broncos wins: 9. [Pts: 415]
St.George-Illawarra Dragons wins: 7. [Pts: 336]
Draws: 0

Biggest wins:
Brisbane Broncos: 30 pts: 2000 National Rugby League - Round 24 - [View] Sun Jul 16: Dragons 14 l. Broncos 44 [Crowd: 14184]
St.George-Illawarra Dragons: 20 pts: 2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 23 - [View] Sun: Broncos 4 l. Dragons 24 [Crowd: 48995]

Biggest Crowd: 2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 23 - [View] Sun: Broncos 4 l. Dragons 24 [Crowd: 48995]

Last 50 games against each other form line (most recent matches at end of line):
Brisbane Broncos: WWWWLWLWLLWWWLLL
St.George-Illawarra Dragons: LLLLWLWLWWLLLWWW

Last 10 games:
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 15 - [View] Fri: Broncos 16 l. Dragons 18 [Crowd: 32914]
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 4 - [View] Sun: Dragons 26 d. Broncos 12 [Crowd: 13708]
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 23 - [View] Sun: Broncos 4 l. Dragons 24 [Crowd: 48995]
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 6 - [View] Sun: Dragons 24 l. Broncos 34 [Crowd: 17287]
2004 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 18 - [View] Fri Jul 9: Dragons 14 l. Broncos 28 [Crowd: 15348]
2004 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 12 - [View] Fri May 28: Broncos 24 d. Dragons 22 [Crowd: 27589]
2003 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 26 - [View] Fri Sep 5: Broncos 25 l. Dragons 26 [Crowd: 35597]
2003 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 17 - [View] Fri Jul 4: Dragons 32 d. Broncos 16 [Crowd: 14153]
2002 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 17 - [View] Sun Jul 7: Broncos 34 d. Dragons 22 [Crowd: 19998]
2002 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 11 - [View] Sun May 26: Dragons 28 d. Broncos 20 [Crowd: 9051]

Overall record at Suncorp Metway Stadium, Castlemaine Street, Milton, Brisbane (QLD) Stats:
Brisbane Broncos: 104 games, won 68, drawn 0, lost 36.
Last 5 games:
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 26 - [View] Sun: Broncos 36 d. Warriors 12
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 23 - [View] Sun: Broncos 12 l. Storm 18
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 21 - [View] Sun: Broncos 6 l. Tigers 20
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 17 - [View] Sun: Broncos 26 d. Sharks 12
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 15 - [View] Fri: Broncos 16 l. Dragons 18

St.George-Illawarra Dragons: 4 games, won 3, drawn 0, lost 1.
Last 5 games:
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 15 - [View] Fri: Broncos 16 l. Dragons 18
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 23 - [View] Sun: Broncos 4 l. Dragons 24
2004 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 12 - [View] Fri May 28: Broncos 24 d. Dragons 22
2003 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 26 - [View] Fri Sep 5: Broncos 25 l. Dragons 26

Head to Head at Suncorp Metway Stadium, Castlemaine Street, Milton, Brisbane (QLD) Stats:
Total Games: 4
Brisbane Broncos wins: 1. [Pts: 69]
St.George-Illawarra Dragons wins: 3. [Pts: 90]
Draws: 0

Last 5 games:
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 15 - [View] Fri: Broncos 16 l. Dragons 18 [Crowd: 32914]
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 23 - [View] Sun: Broncos 4 l. Dragons 24 [Crowd: 48995]
2004 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 12 - [View] Fri May 28: Broncos 24 d. Dragons 22 [Crowd: 27589]
2003 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 26 - [View] Fri Sep 5: Broncos 25 l. Dragons 26 [Crowd: 35597]

Overall record with Paul Simpkins Stats:
Brisbane Broncos: 28 games, won 14, drawn 1, lost 13.
Last 5 games:
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 21 - [View] Sun: Broncos 6 l. Tigers 20
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 26 - [View] Fri: Eels 28 d. Broncos 14
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 22 - [View] Sun: Sea Eagles 21 d. Broncos 20
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 7 - [View] Sat: Sharks 12 l. Broncos 16
2004 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 26 - [View] Fri Sep 3: Panthers 46 d. Broncos 20

St.George-Illawarra Dragons: 34 games, won 18, drawn 2, lost 14.
Last 5 games:
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 25 - [View] Sat: Dragons 18 d. Sharks 4
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 20 - [View] Sun: Raiders 31 d. Dragons 12
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 16 - [View] Sat: Dragons 34 d. Cowboys 14
2006 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 1 - [View] Fri: Tigers 24 d. Dragons 15
2005 NRL Telstra Premiership - Round 24 - [View] Sun: Dragons 25 d. Eels 22

Head to Head with Paul Simpkins Stats:
Total Games: 1
Brisbane Broncos wins: 1.
St.George-Illawarra Dragons wins: 0.
Draws: 0

2001 NRL Telstra Premiership - Semi-Final - [View] Sat Sep 15: Broncos 44 d. Dragons 28 [Crowd: 19259]

Finals Week One Teams, STATS and Predictions

NRL Betting Odds
Super League Betting Odds

Tue September 5, 2006
• Brown Names Unchanged Dragons Team
  
Tue September 5, 2006
• Hodges stays at fullback
  

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