Finals Week 3
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 28 d. North Queensland Cowboys 6

2007 NRL Telstra Premiership Index [Table] [Draw] [Player Stats] [Club Headlines]

Location: Aus_NZ > National > First Grade Competition: NRL Telstra Premiership

Thurston cleared
Wed September 19, 2007
North Queensland captain and halfback Johnathan Thurston was found not guilty of a dangerous throw charge by the NRL Judiciary tonight.

Thurston was cited for a spear tackle following the Cowboys win over New Zealand Warriors on Sunday afternoon. An early guilty plea would have seen Thurston miss one week, but he risked two weeks fighting the charge tonight had he lost.

To risk missing the Grand Final had the Cowboys made it through without Thurston was a massive gamble.

But his defence team, led by Geoff Bellew, successfully argued that he was not responsible for the lifting motion.

The judiciary panel took just 10 minutes to decide on their not guilty verdict.

Speaking to waiting media, "I'm very relieved," said Thurston. "It's a big weight off my shoulders."


Preliminary Finals - Crunching the Numbers
Wed September 19, 2007
While the 2007 finals series has hardly set the world on fire, this week's games are sure to at least create some much needed heat. Week 3 of the finals is traditionally the most dramatic, heartbreaking, and ecstatic of the season as the four best sides go head to head for a spot in the decider. The teams have come so far and are so close, but yet in many cases so far away. Over the years we have seen some dramatic Preliminary Finals/Semi Finals or Grand Final Qualifiers (whichever you like to call them).

Last year was a prime example when the Broncos ran down the Bulldogs in unbelievable fashion when all seemed lost for the eventual premiers. In 2004 the Cowboys went within a whisker of upsetting the red hot Roosters. While one can never forget the collapses suffered by the Sharks in 2001 and 2002, and the famous choke by Newcastle in 2000. Perhaps the side that has the richest history in Preliminary Finals over the last decade is Parramatta. In the much-publicised 1998 'Prelim' the Eels led 18-2 with 9 minutes to play, only to be run down in extra time 32-20. A year later the Eels led the Storm (their opponent this week) 16-6 at the break yet were eventually beaten 18-16. In 2000 the Eels made it three straight losses going down to Brisbane in a brave effort before gaining revenge and qualifying for the 2001 decider with a 24-16 win over the Broncos. However just when it appeared their demons had been exorcised Parra came crashing down again in 2005 when they were hammered 29-0 by the Cowboys in the penultimate match.

In fact when considering the Preliminary final record of each side, Parramatta by far have the worst. Since eight team finals began in 1995 the Eels have won just 1 from 5 matches at this stage of the premiership:

Preliminary Finals (1995-2006):
Melbourne: Played 2, Won 2, 100%
Parramatta: Played 5, Won 1, Lost 4, 20%
Manly: Played 3, Won 3, 100%
North Queensland: Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, 50%

In terms of the sides finishing positions we can also pick up some interesting trends. Since 1999 in the McIntyre system, team number 1 has only lost in the preliminary final twice from 8 attempts. Some of the other sides do not have such a record to call on:

Preliminary Finals (By Team Ranking):
Team 1: Played 8, Won 6, Lost 2, 75%
Team 2: Played 6, Won 3, Lost 3, 50%
Team 3: Played 6, Won 3, Lost 3, 50%
Team 5: Played 3, Won 1, Lost 2, 33%

In fact teams 2 and teams 3 both have extremely poor records in terms of making the Grand Final.

Interesting trends have also emerged in terms of the 1st Preliminary Final and the 2nd Preliminary Final. In 8 games the 2nd highest-ranking winner from the first week has only twice won in the first preliminary final (Knights 2001, Roosters 2003). Hence 6 times the winner from week 2 has continued their surge to go through to the Grand Final. This means that in the '1st Prelim' the stats favour the Cowboys to go through ahead of Manly. In the 2nd Preliminary Final though the Storm are heavily favoured in the statistics. Only twice has the team with the week off in this game ever lost.

Preliminary Final 1 (Sea Eagles v Cowboys):
Week Off Team Won 2, Winner Week 2 Won 6

Preliminary Final 2 (Storm v Eels)
Week Off Team Won 6, Winner Week 2 Won 2

Traditionally preliminary finals are tight affairs. So if you're planning on having a punt on the margins this weekend you might want to consider these facts:
* Only twice has the 1st Preliminary Final been decided by more than 10 points.
* The margin of 17 last year between the Broncos and Bulldogs is the largest winning margin in 8 years of the 1st Preliminary Final under the McIntyre System.
* Take the Cowboys or Eagles at 1-10 in the margins, as the average winning margin in the 1st Preliminary Final is only 8.88.
* In the 2nd Preliminary Final only three times has the margin been above 8, with the Eels 29 point losing margin in 2005 being the largest in the 8 years.
* The average winning margin in the second preliminary final is just 11.25.
* The two times that the minor premier have been beaten has resulted in margins of 16 and 29, meaning if your tipping the Eels to win, you could get great value out of a margin of 11-20 or 21+.

Margins over the years

Preliminary Final 1:
1999 - 2 (Eels lost to Storm)
2000 - 6 (Knights lost to Roosters)
2001 - 8 (Knights def Sharks)
2002 - 4 (Broncos lost to Roosters)
2003 - 10 (Roosters def Bulldogs)
2004 - 16 (Panthers lost to Bulldogs)
2005 - 8 (Dragons lost to Wests Tigers)
2006 - 17 (Bulldogs lost to Broncos)
Avg: 8.88

Preliminary Final 2:
1999 - 16 (Sharks lost to Dragons)
2000 - 6 (Broncos def Eels)
2001 - 8 (Eels def Broncos)
2002 - 6 (Warriors def Sharks)
2003 - 8 (Panthers def Warriors)
2004 - 1 (Roosters def Cowboys)
2005 - 29 (Eels lost to Cowboys)
2006 - 14 (Storm def Dragons)
Avg: 11

So after highlighting the statistics and trends, it seems the Cowboys (by 8) and Melbourne (by 6) are destined for the Grand Final. In saying this, these statistics do not take into account suspensions, and if Thurston misses the big clash the Cowboys may as well pack their end of season bags because no statistic will save them. Happy tipping!

Tue September 18, 2007
• Manly name squad of 20
  
Tue September 18, 2007
• Cowboys name Thurston and Webb in starting side
  

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